The college football world was wishing for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matches underwhelmed, offering lots of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 versus the spread, consisting of 3 fairly non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public do not seem to think so. At least in two cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a specifically popular pick with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to overall dollars since Monday afternoon.
"All the money is coming in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
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The enthusiasm for the Longhorns encompasses the futures market as well. Remember that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the greatest underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most like from sharp wagerers. The Athletic spoke to numerous bookmakers who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to push the line down to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely highly regarded player."
Even though reputable cash has been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do just that, as public bettors are overdoing Texas.
"We would like to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas video game will be huge for the books, it isn't the only video game in town. We chatted with several bookies to break down where the sports betting action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
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This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at most sportsbooks and has actually crept up somewhat to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at the majority of sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the second most popular CFP wager in terms of overall tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I wouldn't be shocked if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, however I currently invite any Boise State cash."
Ohio State got the Oregon second possibility it wanted. Are the Buckeyes all set for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.
So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked with before the CFP first round had Ohio State atop their power scores, and the lookahead lines for this match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending on the sportsbook) in this game before reputable money pressed it to the existing line of -2.5. A somewhat higher majority of wagers at several sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the cash has actually come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the four come kickoff.
"We did take some respected cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable stated. "It's decent two-way action at that number today. The total has gone up three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the greatest move of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over so far.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp bettors, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and right away our Ohio gamblers thought we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, however, that the book had actually seen substantial buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The favorite turned in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line flip? Basically, the wagering action.
Despite the fact that Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, wagerers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars bet), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Being Available In On Texas'
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